Monday Briefing

Marine Le Pen, leader of the National Rally, as results came in yesterday.Credit…Francois Lo Presti/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

France’s far right surges in the polls

The National Rally party won a crushing victory in the first round of voting for the French National Assembly, according to early projections, bringing its long-taboo brand of nationalist, anti-immigrant politics to the brink of power. Final results from the Interior Ministry are expected to be released today.

Pollster projections, which are normally reliable, suggested that the far-right party would take about 34 percent of the vote, ahead of a coalition of left-wing parties, which was projected to take about 29 percent of the vote, and President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist Renaissance party and its allies, which was in third place with about 22 percent.

Turnout was high at about 67 percent, compared with 47.5 percent in the first round of the last parliamentary election in 2022. The two-round election will be completed with a runoff this coming Sunday between the leading parties in each constituency. The National Rally now looks very likely to be the largest force in the lower house, if not necessarily with an absolute majority.

What’s next: If a new majority of lawmakers opposed to Macron is ushered in, he will be forced to appoint a political adversary as prime minister. If no clear majority emerges, the country could be headed for months of political turmoil. Here are takeaways from the vote.

Analysis: Both France and the U.S. face nationalist forces that could undo their international commitments and pitch the world into uncharted territory, writes Roger Cohen, our Paris bureau chief.